The US is facing a historic election in November. It’s hard to believe that our own election was less than a month ago, but such is the fast-moving world of politics.

Last week we decided to find out how Britons viewed the US presidential election. In the aftermath of Joe Biden stepping down and JD Vance being selected as Trump’s running mate, the ticket for November seems to be solidified - pending Harris’ Vice Presidential pick.

Joe Biden Steps Down

Joe Biden pulled out of the 2024 Presidential Race 10 days ago, endorsing Kamala Harris to replace him as the Democratic Nominee. When we asked the UK public, 73% said they thought he was right to step down, whilst only 7% said he was wrong to.

This came after weeks of increasing pressure from leading Democrats for Biden to step down after what was seen by many as a disastrous debate performance against Trump in June. The question now is this: Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump in November?

We broke this question down into its constituent parts. First, how many Britons know who Harris is? Second, do they think that she is the best candidate for the Democratic nomination? Third, would they prefer her or Trump to win the election? And finally, do Brits think Harris will beat Trump in November?

Is Kamala Harris the right pick?

Let’s turn to the first question: How many Brits know who Harris is? We showed an image of Harris, and asked Brits if they knew her name, and why she was in the news last week. The photo and results are as follows:

In all, 58% of Brits recognised her name, her role, or both, whilst 42% couldn’t name either. This is something to keep in mind as we discuss how Brits perceive her, and whether they want her to be the president from 2025.

The results show that name recognition is slightly lower for Harris than her role as Vice President and the Democratic Presidential Nominee, something that will undoubtedly increase as she becomes more visible. As a relatively less visible public figure as Vice President, Harris will be working hard to define herself and the story she wants to tell about America.

Our second question was whether Harris was the best candidate for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Our results revealed that just under a third of Brits think she is, whilst one in four think she is not the best candidate.
We decided to give two ‘no’ options to our respondents, as a binary choice between Yes and No would not have represented the sentiment that Harris is not the best candidate, but that she should be the candidate this election. This is particularly prevalent in America, where claims that California is a ‘polarising state’ make some worried about whether she is the best the Democrats can put forward.

In reality, many have realised that this late in the race, Harris must be the nominee. With Trump campaigning for months, even years before her, Harris already has a lot on her plate to catch up to the public recognition and argument formation that he has accrued. Thus any further infighting would just put the eventual nominee in a worse position to fight, leaving just over two months between the Democratic convention and the Election in November.

This leaves us with just 11% of Brits, with the obvious caveat of a large undecided cohort of 43%, saying another candidate should run in her place. All in all, 46% of British voters think that Harris should be the nominee, all things considered.

And now the big questions: Who would Brits prefer to win the election, and how do they predict it will turn out?
The big news is that 55% think that, realistically, Donald Trump will win the election. There is a significant disconnect, to the tune of 20%, between who will win and who they’d like to win. Brits are much more supportive of Harris over Trump, at 65 to 35 percent.

Now let’s go back to the very first question on Harris. In that, 58% of Brits claimed they knew either Harris’ name, role, or both. In the question above, we see that 65% would prefer her to win the election. This suggests that Trump is much less popular amongst British voters, with people wanting him to lose to someone they are much less familiar with, and who some know nothing about.

Split by party, the results on who voters would prefer to win the US election are as follows:

Reform UK are the only party to prefer a Trump victory over Harris, with the Greens the most in favour of Harris. Perhaps surprisingly, given the amount of support Farage has given to Trump - initially ruling himself out of running in the UK election in order to help Trump in America - 38% of Reform voters would still prefer a Harris win.

Interestingly, although the Greens have the highest support for Harris of any major party, 20% of their voters would still prefer a Trump presidency to Harris. There could be many reasons for this - perhaps a populist tendency, perhaps not being an environmentalist, perhaps having low information on Trump’s environmental and social policies. Nevertheless, an interesting surprise in our data.

JD Vance and Conclusions

Donald Trump finally revealed his Vice Presidential pick at the Republican Convention, naming JD Vance as his running mate. Clips quickly started circulating in UK social media of Vance calling the UK ‘the first islamist nation with nuclear weapons’ under Labour leadership.

We showed the video clip to voters, and asked them how Trump and Vance winning in November would impact UK / US relations:

A majority of Brits (56%) replied that Trump and Vance in the White House would not weaken the special relationship between the UK and US, whilst 44% claimed it would. These stats were consistent along party lines, seemingly placing public opinion in the ‘the special relationship is more important than who holds the office’ camp.

So, what can we say about how the UK is viewing the Presidential Election?

Brits would much rather Harris wins than Trump, with the exception of a majority of Reform UK voters. That being said, Harris is not a widely recognised figure in the UK, suggesting that Trump is turning Brits away rather than Harris exciting them. British voters overwhelmingly support Joe Biden’s decision to step down as President, but think that Trump will, on balance, still win the election.

It’s going to be an interesting few months, that’s for sure.